Thursday, November 12, 2009

3 possible scenario for the next wave of crisis

Seeking Alpha publishes an interesting article on 3 possible ways the next wave of crisis will play out.

In brief they analyze 3 scenario :
Deflationary: dollar and bonds  rise, stocks fall.
Inflationary: dollar and bonds continue to fall, stocks continue to rise. In one word: more of what we have  already, and that's precisely why, in my opinion, it's the least probable:  at present, the real economy and financial markets are going in the different directions.
Hyperinflationary: all paper instruments fall destroying the economy as we know.

A simple analysis of some recent trends  gives a higher chances for the 1st scenario. It's my opinion as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment