Current EW count for DJIA

The clearest picture of the current markets is shown, in my opinion, by the DJIA:

USD/CHF is it like in 2008?

Is the CHF a "safe haven" at this point? I doubt it. In any case, the similarity is striking:

Medium term projection for EUR/USD

The following projection of EUR/USD behavior considers that the correction of the first wave down in the US equity markets will be done by mid or end of July. The August, in this case, will be really hot with the 3d wave down for the equities and the 5th for the euro.

Is the final capitulation on euro still ahead?

I think the set-up is quiet good for the final capitulation on the euro. On EUR/USD that should be at around 1.175-1.18

The risk is back

Market has tried to rally and was sold in a controlled manner during the second part of the yesterday's  session. But looking in the details one will remark that risk is starting to enter by a small door. Small caps were clear performers. Commodity currencies were strong as well as East European ones. The implied volatility as well as it expectation (VXX and contracts on VIX) were about unchanged.
As for the moment I'd expect  one more close near the recent lows for the broad US indexes as well as for other risk plays (EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF) before we start the summer risk rally.

A turning point?

May be we have seen the turning point today and the beginning of the summer rally. In any case my trend lines for IYT (Dow Transport) and Intel have worked just fine. XHB and R2K have gotten a bit lower, but have preserved with a good margin their February's lows. Financials were strong, that is bullish.
In my opinion, this week and even may be tomorrow will be decisive.

The 5th is the 5th

So, yesterday we've closed at multi months lows on DJIA and SPX thus confirming my view and the possible trend reversal.
A good indicator to watch is the old good EUR/JPY. Technically it's rather constructive.

Expanding triangle as a terminal wave on EUR/USD?

As for the cable, we should avoid to make  new lows: