The tittle of my post is the program for today's session in the stock market. Yesterday's one proved just merveilleusement my EW count. NDX has stopped right at 61.8% retracement of the intermediate wave 1.
After market FED's announcement proves that they have good EW analysts as well. In any case, the message is pretty clear: "drop stocks, currencies, commodities and run on treasuries". So, don't fight the FED.
Showing posts with label FED. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FED. Show all posts
Friday, February 19, 2010
Monday, November 9, 2009
The recession has ended, but US banks don't take it seriously
A strange thing is happenning in US bank sector. The recession has ended, but banks are still reducing their loans to the real economy:
And they rise their reserves as if there is no tomorrow:
Really strange, if we look at previous recessions ends. Or may be, they just think there is still too much risk in the system.
And they rise their reserves as if there is no tomorrow:
Really strange, if we look at previous recessions ends. Or may be, they just think there is still too much risk in the system.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Sell the news
The Fed was as dovish as they ever could, but we didn't managed to hold. Looking at the charts, I think the lows of 1027 (on December's SPX) should hold in the comming days. What we have seen yesterday was the most likely wave A for those in the correction (semis, Nasdaq, small caps) and the wave (i) for, at least, Dow Industrial.
Looking bellow at charts of Dow, SPX and Nasdaq Composite we can see that only Dow didn't violate the trend line from the March lows. Moreover, Nasdaq has already put in a lower low, but it's not the case of 2 other indexes.
So, I'm still sticking to my Nasdaq's count, but may be with the correction about the year end. As for now, markets look a bit weaker than I've been expecting, so the top of this correction wave (since July's low) is closer and if this wave is the final one (I believe so) at year end we will be significantly lower than even now.
May be a disappointing shopping season in the US and Europe will be a nail in this rally's coffin.
Looking bellow at charts of Dow, SPX and Nasdaq Composite we can see that only Dow didn't violate the trend line from the March lows. Moreover, Nasdaq has already put in a lower low, but it's not the case of 2 other indexes.
So, I'm still sticking to my Nasdaq's count, but may be with the correction about the year end. As for now, markets look a bit weaker than I've been expecting, so the top of this correction wave (since July's low) is closer and if this wave is the final one (I believe so) at year end we will be significantly lower than even now.
May be a disappointing shopping season in the US and Europe will be a nail in this rally's coffin.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Running with bulls
No surprise, we're rallying ahead of the Fed decision. Just as many times before, since the bear has begun. Go ahead, load the mull and run with bulls, it's still an Indian summer, and the Fed won't disappoint until it won't matter anymore.
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