Watching the grass grow

While I've been expecting that this rally should last until the year-end  I didn't think it would get so boring. I definitely prefer the tops of bull markets, with their spikes as early bears get squeezed.
Nasdaq Composite goes nowhere since 2 months already.

Hopefully, there is DOW, the big caps are still desired.

And if you think we gonna break out on the upside, look at the high beta small caps Russel 2000:

And some of not so old leaders,

Homebuilders:

And Semiconductor Companies:

 Ok, ok, I know, the real story is about Gold. There is a lot of action. People are scared by coming hyperinflation and are buying gold as if there is no tomorrow. Personally, I'm far from being sure , most of them really understand why they need gold, but it continues to be the game du jour until it's no more.

So, where to go now?

Tuesdays we had an often played situation with the Europe sinking (on  the come back of bank worries) the first half of the session while SPX future was retesting previous day lows at around 1027.

And after the retest the Buffett's bet news had hit the tape. I've written recently that in my opinion the trend for transports have changed and I'm sticking with that view. While railroads may have a bright future in the long run, due to changes in the way we transport goods and travel our-self, the current situation and perspectives are far from being a bright spot.
As for the nearest future in other markets, I believe that  we have finished the correction for some and the first impulsive wave down for others. It will be interesting to see the quality of the rebound. The leadership is clearly changed since the techs and especially semis as well as most financials are no more. So I think some good upside is still in cards for inflation related stuff (gold and silver are leaders as usual), especially if Benny doesn't disappoint markets with his words about exit strategy.

The wind of change

So, the expected correction has finally started and, as for me, did the most of its job last week. In my opinion the trend change is  now  confirmed for semis, small caps, home builders and transports. For Nasdaq my scenario seems to be followed with an exception of starting point. The only broad group where the top is clearly not in are big caps with DOW Industrial and XMI as benchmark indexes.
For inflation related stuff  things are a bit trickier. On one side the GSR (Gold to Silver Ratio) indicates the bottom is in.

On another, gold price and USD index charts still looks uncompleted. The same story for emerging markets ETFs. They had such a strong momentum before the correction has begun, that I can't see them not to make new highs before we'll actually roll over.

Will SOX suck this time?

Another index I'm watching closely: Semiconductors or  SOX. For those who are too young in the markets, SOX is one of the components the tech. bubble of 00' was made of. Since, it has lost its luster, but in some opinions  still remains an advanced indicator of economical growth since an  economic contraction makes the inventories of semi companies grow and their earnings (usually based on big margins) plunge.
SOX has landed in Nov' 08,  and since then has almost doubled. Now It looks indecisive about further movements up, lagging Nasdaq in its latest attempt to rally.