The first impulse - update

The 4th correctional wave was a bit higher than initially excpected, giving more room for 5th to go.
So, I expect the current 3d to complete this Monday morning (East Coast time zone). The 4th may be a strong one, leading to the formation of expanded triangle.

As for the EURUSD, things seem to be a bit in advance to the stock market. A strong reaction to NFP figures means the 4th wave is in the making and should complete under 1.25 on Monday:

USDHUF as a mirror of Eastern Europe

Just some ideas about the impact of the bear market on Eastern Europe in coming months:

The picture For the Russian  ruble and Polish zloty will not be very different 

The first impulse

The picture in the markets seems to get clearer.
In my opinion, next week we're going to finish the first bear impulse for the DOW. The currencies also seem to start looking to stabilize before the correction of the downtrend will start.

Among all indexes, The Dow has the clearest picture:

And as for currencies, I expect euro to over perform the commodities dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD)  before the bottom of this impulse (in DOW) is reached. The base for EURUSD will be probably built over 1.24 level:

Is AUDUSD done?

One of the  key components of the global markets - AUDUSD is showing some strange behaviour, that could translate into the full-blown panic in not so distant future.
In the coming days we should find out if the current wave is an impulse as shown bellow and hence if we could expect an unravel of carry trade in months to come.

Mid term EURUSD

EURUSD seems to be in the 4th wave correction of the move started in early January. That means after the correction completed later this week or at the beginning of the next one, we will start a 5th wave up which may reach or even take out the high of 2009th - 1.5145.

Short term USD index

The dollar's move since 8th of January doesn't seems to be complete. Another wave down should occur after the correction around 78 is done. The potential target is around 76.2.

XLE shows the way?

The year end rally for AUD/USD has finished exactly 31st Dec. The odds are high the cyclical strength of the green back is here for rather a long period of time. 90 in the index (DX) should be taken this year without any difficulty.
But for the moment a quick look at the XLE ETF. The rally started in July is coming to the end, my preferred date for the top is around the state of the union speech (Jan 25th):

Year end rally?

The very important currency pair AUD/USD may be signalling an imminent end of the correction and the start of the year end rally. The top around 1.05-06 may be a very long term one, but for the moment, let's forget all the future austerity programs and chinese inflations.

Make your choice Neo: red our blue

2 possible midterm scenario: blue and red one. I don't take in account an outcome where Bernanke wins and we get the DGDF (Dollar Goes Down Forever).
I prefer the red one, where the world economy as well as Bernanke's credibility (if there is still any) will be killed by high commodities prices.

Short term USD index, update

The current count for USD index is confirmed, I think there are pretty good chances the dollar has bottomed, but I'd like to see some more upside action before the correction starts:

The short-term USD index

The previous count of EUR/USD is still valid. Here is an USD index count, which has a clearer stucture:

USD: possible targets

Short term EUR/USD

The final version of the summer corrective rally is shown bellow. Nothing new, except that the C wave of the correction has developed as a zig zag and not a  5 I've been looking for.  As for me, that had a cost of about 100 pips of missed profit.
So, now, I'm pretty sure that we've entered the 3d minute wave down with the target of at least 1.215. The crossing of 1.2587 will confirm the move and if ever we manage to bounce back ant take the 1.2922 resistance we shouldn't go higher than 1.31 level.

AUD/USD: the end is nigh

My best guess for an important, as for the stock market, currency pair: AUD/USD.

It seems that we're near the end of the correction, more precisely in the C which has the form of the ending diagonal. I estimate the end of this wave and thus of the entire correction at 0.9246

An important junction on EUR/USD

EUR/USD is approaching an important junction, shown on the chart. The upper trend line before we crashed in May's panic and the 38% retrace of the entire move from 1.515 to 1.188. Moreover this resistance level is consistent with my  short term Elliott Wave count.

As for the US index that level of  EUR/USD will give 81.2-81.4 that is a 50%  correction of the whole index's move from November '09 lows to June's '10 highs.

Short term EUR/USD. Update.

The 3d of the C was a shortened one, we didn't reach what could be called a "~1.31" level. Then the parallel trend line was busted, but we didn't reach the level of the 1st of C, that gives a possibility to go a bit higher, say to 1.31 or some more. The RSI should not confirm that move.

Short term EUR/USD

So, no surprise, we're in the red scenario. I should recognize, it's a bit more rapid than I would have expected, but never mind, the corrections are always fast and furious. And we've just passed the strongest part of it - the 3d of the 3d of the C.
The count and the projections are shown on the chart:

Possibilities

It's quiet difficult to say at the moment what are we correcting in EUR/USD. Is it the whole move started in late November '09, or rather just its crashing part of April-May. That's why, I include 2 wave counts:

 Looking at other European currencies, doesn't give much more clarification. In any case the pound seems to be close to the end of its correction, whatever it eventually is.

And as for the swiss frank, it's clear that we're correcting the entire move, but that doesn't mean, the next move up will hit the new highs. The dollar may easily put new cyclical highs versus pound and euro without doing so versus frank, if, of course, we follow the green count on the EUR/USD.

USD/CHF is it like in 2008?

Is the CHF a "safe haven" at this point? I doubt it. In any case, the similarity is striking:

USD index: consolidation

It seems we have entered the consolidation mode on USD index. Our position comparing to the previous dollar's wave up is on the chart. I would suggest that the next wave up for the USD index will involve all major currencies as well as precocious mettals. May be, from the fundamental point of view,  it will be provoked by the change of FED's language after some signs of "improved" economy.