Showing posts with label Technological Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technological Stocks. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

So, where to go now?

Tuesdays we had an often played situation with the Europe sinking (on  the come back of bank worries) the first half of the session while SPX future was retesting previous day lows at around 1027.











And after the retest the Buffett's bet news had hit the tape. I've written recently that in my opinion the trend for transports have changed and I'm sticking with that view. While railroads may have a bright future in the long run, due to changes in the way we transport goods and travel our-self, the current situation and perspectives are far from being a bright spot.
As for the nearest future in other markets, I believe that  we have finished the correction for some and the first impulsive wave down for others. It will be interesting to see the quality of the rebound. The leadership is clearly changed since the techs and especially semis as well as most financials are no more. So I think some good upside is still in cards for inflation related stuff (gold and silver are leaders as usual), especially if Benny doesn't disappoint markets with his words about exit strategy.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Will SOX suck this time?

Another index I'm watching closely: Semiconductors or  SOX. For those who are too young in the markets, SOX is one of the components the tech. bubble of 00' was made of. Since, it has lost its luster, but in some opinions  still remains an advanced indicator of economical growth since an  economic contraction makes the inventories of semi companies grow and their earnings (usually based on big margins) plunge.
SOX has landed in Nov' 08,  and since then has almost doubled. Now It looks indecisive about further movements up, lagging Nasdaq in its latest attempt to rally.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

No Top is in, yet

So, it seems, it's a bit frustrating to be a bear theese days.
Yelnick and a lot of other elliottists have reiterated recently "last chance to exit" calls, but no chance, we haven't entered the first wave down, yet, - it's only a zig zag correction. Indeed, it would be surprising to start a new leg down a priori without any notable non confirmation signs. Hopefully, during this new leg up, we will be satisfied.
I'm looking, at least, for a relative underperformance of technological and homebuilders stocks comparing to traditional big caps. On the other hand this wave should mark the highest point of price and optimism for inflation related stuff, like EM stocks/bonds and for precious metals sector as well: "Hey guys, we're facing a hyper(re)inflation, no?"