Some ideas about the market's medium term future

Last Tuesday (in US it still was Monday) I've posted the projection on how the markets could behave with some US sectors and individual stocks during the nearest future in the russian part of the blog. The main idea behind this projection is the fact that US markets are entering the period of the broad top formation for the whole rally which started from the March '09 lows. In this context, there is high probability that many individual stocks have already put their cyclical tops in and are in early stages of decline. The same thing may be true even for major broad indexes (SPX, Dow Industrial). But what was clear at that point for me, it's that some important individual stocks, secondary indexes and even the Dow Transport were still strong ans able to refresh the new cyclical highs before the things really roll over. So, as for example, I've cited just few of them:
Russel 2000, XHB (homebuilders ETF), IYT (Dow Transport ETF) and INTC (Intel Corp). All of them seems to be on the road to complete the expanding triangle pattern:

Since that post, the defined  supports were touched on 3 of 4 (INTC missed by about 30 cents). Market has rallied  strong and many pundits have declared the correction over.
I'm not sure the things are so simple, especially for the broad indexes like SPX or Dow Industrial.
Let's take the latter. If we look at the candle charts, the move since late April looks more corrective than not.

 But if we take the close price only, things are much  clearer. And they will become even more clear, should we retest the last Tuesday's lows, especially closing near them. In this case we'll have a  5 waves decline on the close basis, meaning, from the point of view of classical Elliott wave principles,  that the trend for the Dow Industrial has changed. But, since many  other narrow indexes are still looking bullish , the rally in DOW will be long with a deep retrace.  May be, at the top, we will see the case of the Dow theory  non confirmation : new highs on Transport with the failed Industrial.