The first impulse - update

The 4th correctional wave was a bit higher than initially excpected, giving more room for 5th to go.
So, I expect the current 3d to complete this Monday morning (East Coast time zone). The 4th may be a strong one, leading to the formation of expanded triangle.

As for the EURUSD, things seem to be a bit in advance to the stock market. A strong reaction to NFP figures means the 4th wave is in the making and should complete under 1.25 on Monday:

USDHUF as a mirror of Eastern Europe

Just some ideas about the impact of the bear market on Eastern Europe in coming months:

The picture For the Russian  ruble and Polish zloty will not be very different 

The first impulse

The picture in the markets seems to get clearer.
In my opinion, next week we're going to finish the first bear impulse for the DOW. The currencies also seem to start looking to stabilize before the correction of the downtrend will start.

Among all indexes, The Dow has the clearest picture:

And as for currencies, I expect euro to over perform the commodities dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD)  before the bottom of this impulse (in DOW) is reached. The base for EURUSD will be probably built over 1.24 level:

Is AUDUSD done?

One of the  key components of the global markets - AUDUSD is showing some strange behaviour, that could translate into the full-blown panic in not so distant future.
In the coming days we should find out if the current wave is an impulse as shown bellow and hence if we could expect an unravel of carry trade in months to come.

May AAPL ever disappoint? Isn't the stake too high this time?

It seems to me, the AAPL sellers won't wait untill the figures areout in April:

Of course, the Nasdaq100 is highly correlated to AAPL and it seems to be close to at least a big correction:

The Bear Market's possible path

So, we've entered the 2nd phase of the Great Bear. I think we still have some room on the downside in order to complete the 1st intermediate wave down. Let's say somewhere near 10K on the Dow. May be a bit higher, may be lower (toward 9600). But, in any case we're only  at the beginning of this bear market. Most likely somewhere next year we'll enter the time where any support for the markets from the politics or monetary regulators will become impossible due to continuing polarization of western societies (think about American elections) and some form of capitulation will ensue.
The shown chart doesn't include even a remote possibility of sovereign failure of countries like Spain or Italy. I hope the EU will struggle and will prefer to sacrifice  the real economy rather than the sovereign debt market.

Midterm DOW

An intermediate top is due the week starting 13th June. But the entire bull market may still try to climb until the end of the summer. The wave C where we currently are, will reach in that case the duration of the  A.

Mid term EURUSD

EURUSD seems to be in the 4th wave correction of the move started in early January. That means after the correction completed later this week or at the beginning of the next one, we will start a 5th wave up which may reach or even take out the high of 2009th - 1.5145.

Mid term NDX & DJIA

It seems that Nasdaq100, who was the leader of the Hope rally since March 2009, has finally given up:

 

But the DJIA is still able to post some new highs, at least at 12600.

Short term USD index

The dollar's move since 8th of January doesn't seems to be complete. Another wave down should occur after the correction around 78 is done. The potential target is around 76.2.