The Bear Market's possible path

So, we've entered the 2nd phase of the Great Bear. I think we still have some room on the downside in order to complete the 1st intermediate wave down. Let's say somewhere near 10K on the Dow. May be a bit higher, may be lower (toward 9600). But, in any case we're only  at the beginning of this bear market. Most likely somewhere next year we'll enter the time where any support for the markets from the politics or monetary regulators will become impossible due to continuing polarization of western societies (think about American elections) and some form of capitulation will ensue.
The shown chart doesn't include even a remote possibility of sovereign failure of countries like Spain or Italy. I hope the EU will struggle and will prefer to sacrifice  the real economy rather than the sovereign debt market.

Midterm DOW

An intermediate top is due the week starting 13th June. But the entire bull market may still try to climb until the end of the summer. The wave C where we currently are, will reach in that case the duration of the  A.

Mid term EURUSD

EURUSD seems to be in the 4th wave correction of the move started in early January. That means after the correction completed later this week or at the beginning of the next one, we will start a 5th wave up which may reach or even take out the high of 2009th - 1.5145.

Mid term NDX & DJIA

It seems that Nasdaq100, who was the leader of the Hope rally since March 2009, has finally given up:

 

But the DJIA is still able to post some new highs, at least at 12600.

Short term USD index

The dollar's move since 8th of January doesn't seems to be complete. Another wave down should occur after the correction around 78 is done. The potential target is around 76.2.

DJIA: this is the end, my only friend (c) The Doors

The ods are high, the advance of the DJIA from 26/11/2010 is over:

 

 

XLE shows the way?

The year end rally for AUD/USD has finished exactly 31st Dec. The odds are high the cyclical strength of the green back is here for rather a long period of time. 90 in the index (DX) should be taken this year without any difficulty.
But for the moment a quick look at the XLE ETF. The rally started in July is coming to the end, my preferred date for the top is around the state of the union speech (Jan 25th):

Year end rally?

The very important currency pair AUD/USD may be signalling an imminent end of the correction and the start of the year end rally. The top around 1.05-06 may be a very long term one, but for the moment, let's forget all the future austerity programs and chinese inflations.

Make your choice Neo: red our blue

2 possible midterm scenario: blue and red one. I don't take in account an outcome where Bernanke wins and we get the DGDF (Dollar Goes Down Forever).
I prefer the red one, where the world economy as well as Bernanke's credibility (if there is still any) will be killed by high commodities prices.

Short term USD index, update

The current count for USD index is confirmed, I think there are pretty good chances the dollar has bottomed, but I'd like to see some more upside action before the correction starts: