The Bear Market's possible path

So, we've entered the 2nd phase of the Great Bear. I think we still have some room on the downside in order to complete the 1st intermediate wave down. Let's say somewhere near 10K on the Dow. May be a bit higher, may be lower (toward 9600). But, in any case we're only  at the beginning of this bear market. Most likely somewhere next year we'll enter the time where any support for the markets from the politics or monetary regulators will become impossible due to continuing polarization of western societies (think about American elections) and some form of capitulation will ensue.
The shown chart doesn't include even a remote possibility of sovereign failure of countries like Spain or Italy. I hope the EU will struggle and will prefer to sacrifice  the real economy rather than the sovereign debt market.