The first impulse - update

The 4th correctional wave was a bit higher than initially excpected, giving more room for 5th to go.
So, I expect the current 3d to complete this Monday morning (East Coast time zone). The 4th may be a strong one, leading to the formation of expanded triangle.

As for the EURUSD, things seem to be a bit in advance to the stock market. A strong reaction to NFP figures means the 4th wave is in the making and should complete under 1.25 on Monday:

USDHUF as a mirror of Eastern Europe

Just some ideas about the impact of the bear market on Eastern Europe in coming months:

The picture For the Russian  ruble and Polish zloty will not be very different 

The first impulse

The picture in the markets seems to get clearer.
In my opinion, next week we're going to finish the first bear impulse for the DOW. The currencies also seem to start looking to stabilize before the correction of the downtrend will start.

Among all indexes, The Dow has the clearest picture:

And as for currencies, I expect euro to over perform the commodities dollars (AUD, NZD, CAD)  before the bottom of this impulse (in DOW) is reached. The base for EURUSD will be probably built over 1.24 level:

Is AUDUSD done?

One of the  key components of the global markets - AUDUSD is showing some strange behaviour, that could translate into the full-blown panic in not so distant future.
In the coming days we should find out if the current wave is an impulse as shown bellow and hence if we could expect an unravel of carry trade in months to come.

May AAPL ever disappoint? Isn't the stake too high this time?

It seems to me, the AAPL sellers won't wait untill the figures areout in April:

Of course, the Nasdaq100 is highly correlated to AAPL and it seems to be close to at least a big correction:

The Bear Market's possible path

So, we've entered the 2nd phase of the Great Bear. I think we still have some room on the downside in order to complete the 1st intermediate wave down. Let's say somewhere near 10K on the Dow. May be a bit higher, may be lower (toward 9600). But, in any case we're only  at the beginning of this bear market. Most likely somewhere next year we'll enter the time where any support for the markets from the politics or monetary regulators will become impossible due to continuing polarization of western societies (think about American elections) and some form of capitulation will ensue.
The shown chart doesn't include even a remote possibility of sovereign failure of countries like Spain or Italy. I hope the EU will struggle and will prefer to sacrifice  the real economy rather than the sovereign debt market.

Midterm DOW

An intermediate top is due the week starting 13th June. But the entire bull market may still try to climb until the end of the summer. The wave C where we currently are, will reach in that case the duration of the  A.

Mid term EURUSD

EURUSD seems to be in the 4th wave correction of the move started in early January. That means after the correction completed later this week or at the beginning of the next one, we will start a 5th wave up which may reach or even take out the high of 2009th - 1.5145.

Mid term NDX & DJIA

It seems that Nasdaq100, who was the leader of the Hope rally since March 2009, has finally given up:

 

But the DJIA is still able to post some new highs, at least at 12600.

Short term USD index

The dollar's move since 8th of January doesn't seems to be complete. Another wave down should occur after the correction around 78 is done. The potential target is around 76.2.

DJIA: this is the end, my only friend (c) The Doors

The ods are high, the advance of the DJIA from 26/11/2010 is over:

 

 

XLE shows the way?

The year end rally for AUD/USD has finished exactly 31st Dec. The odds are high the cyclical strength of the green back is here for rather a long period of time. 90 in the index (DX) should be taken this year without any difficulty.
But for the moment a quick look at the XLE ETF. The rally started in July is coming to the end, my preferred date for the top is around the state of the union speech (Jan 25th):

Year end rally?

The very important currency pair AUD/USD may be signalling an imminent end of the correction and the start of the year end rally. The top around 1.05-06 may be a very long term one, but for the moment, let's forget all the future austerity programs and chinese inflations.

Make your choice Neo: red our blue

2 possible midterm scenario: blue and red one. I don't take in account an outcome where Bernanke wins and we get the DGDF (Dollar Goes Down Forever).
I prefer the red one, where the world economy as well as Bernanke's credibility (if there is still any) will be killed by high commodities prices.

Short term USD index, update

The current count for USD index is confirmed, I think there are pretty good chances the dollar has bottomed, but I'd like to see some more upside action before the correction starts:

The short-term USD index

The previous count of EUR/USD is still valid. Here is an USD index count, which has a clearer stucture:

DJIA short term update

The market seems to be in the final 5th wave of the move started in late August.

And the fuel (fear ) is burning out quiet fast:

USD: possible targets

Midterm DJIA

The moment of truth for PM is coming

Let's see if gold stocks and silver will be able to confirm the gold rally. The high of 2008 is at about 57 :

For the silver we're close to the  2008 high too:

Is Ben really almighty as he may pretend and can change natural lows of deflation and inflation:

The coming  days are really important and will show the direction for the future market action not only in the PM sector.