Friday, May 28, 2010

The setup for EUR/USD is good

By establishing the double bottom at around 1.215  EUR/USD confirms my positive opinion and EW count and validates the target of 1.32+ in coming weeks. This target is confirmed as well by the price action in  GPB/USD and equities.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Bottoming

So, in my opinion, we're in the process of bottoming.
Despite the strong performance of the european markets end US futures this morning, be aware of a highly probable pull back to test the Tuesday's low. In my opinion, that will be an excellent entry point if you're not already in.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Commodities priced in euro are breaking down as well

Well, the euro seems to be stabilizing. May be some more days of shaking out  weak hands, and we will  climb higher, toward, at least, 1.32-35.
One of the tings supporting the single currency, I see, is the beginning of the commodities decline. The CRB priced in euro has rolled over, just as it did before in USD:

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Good bye, carry trade!

Euro has finally started to show some resiliency after yesterday's rally.  Isn't surprising?
The chart of EUR/AUD is speaking by its self:

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Friday, May 7, 2010

Fat fingers?

May be, may be not, after all it's not that important:













The Gold/Silver ratio is surging 3d day in a row:


















And what's about US treasuries, they were already rallying for some weeks:

















So, was it really because of a fat finger?

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Precious metals: time to get out


Gold and silver were in the uptrend since the beginning of February. But it seems their run up was a mere  correction which is about to be done.
Gold has corrected 78% of its initial decline since December '09.









The move down will be confirmed after the breach of the low trend line (now at about 1130):










 As for the silver, the story is about the same, except that the correction was  a bit deeper.










 And as for the broad market, the  drop of PMs will be anything but bullish.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Thoughts about the primary trend

An excellent analyses about the current market from Claassen Research.
They explain with historical charts and data why we shouldn't pay too much attention to the market's internals. This time it's really different and is similar to  the previous bear market rallies.
A must read.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

The 2nd wave down is already on, just look in the right direction

While Wall Street is pushing higher every single day on the upbeat earnings, let's look what is going on on the other side of the Atlantic  ocean. Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian  equity indexes are below.
Just wondering, if the size of US government debt ever become an issue, will the reaction of Wall street be the same as in Greece?





























Monday, April 12, 2010

Is it it?

Great news, they have finally did it! Great news for the Euro bears in the long run, but a bit of pain for the moment. May be, again until 1.3850.
Meantime AUD/USD has flashed a big sell signal this morning dropping after a gap up  in the clear 5-wave pattern. We have missed by 16 pips  the Nov' 09 recovery high. Is it the end? Will AUD be joined by its peers CAD and silver in coming days?