Will Greece freeze Eastern Europe's credit markets?

Are we heading to the contagion of Greece problems to Eastern Europe and other PIGS? If even greek citizens don't believe in their country's financial system by pulling out their savings by billions, who ever will? In my opinion the game over for the whole region is starting to loom.

USD index: consolidation

It seems we have entered the consolidation mode on USD index. Our position comparing to the previous dollar's wave up is on the chart. I would suggest that the next wave up for the USD index will involve all major currencies as well as precocious mettals. May be, from the fundamental point of view,  it will be provoked by the change of FED's language after some signs of "improved" economy.

Current EW count for EUR/USD

The previous call about 5th wave has been wrong. Instead, we have entered  something what could be called 3d minute wave, which seems to be about done. In any case the upside is capped by the 1.338.

EUR/USD: Now, take a deep breadth

The EUR/USD move (toward 1.3406) this morning wasn't confirmed by other currencies neither precious metals. Looking closely at wave structure I consider the 1.34 as a very likely bottom of the 1st minute wave of 5th intermediate (1st primary). The target rage for the correction's end should be within 1.355-1.369.

More Secure, more treasuries

Wow, an average american has finally started to listen to the Fed:

U.S. households increased their holdings of Treasury securities to the highest level in at least two years, according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Households held $795.2 billion in Treasurys at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009, up from $735.5 billion in the third quarter, as Americans continued to find U.S. debt an attractive investment amid continued uncertainty over the strength of the U.S. economic rebound and sovereign-debt problems abroad. That's the highest level of holdings in any quarter since at least the beginning of 2008, according to the flow of funds data. The Fed's household and nonprofit corporations sector include domestic hedge funds.

That's sure we have a huge  reserve of dry powder for the gov. bond market here. 60 billions of inflows during the quarter where SPX was climbing without any meaningful correction.

USD: showing the way

This morning in Europe we have tested yesterday's highs on March's SPX contracts at 1112.75, the same time NDX's ones have missed previous high by about 2 points. Also we've seen a  sharp rally in  all currencies against USD, bringing USD index to its trend line going since mid January.

The price action which actually followed suggests that we have finally rolled over and, at present, entering new phase of dollars appreciation and sell-offs in all classes of risky assets.
 This scenario will be validated by crossing 81.5 on the USD index.

Gap and run

The tittle of my post is the program for today's session in the stock market. Yesterday's one  proved  just merveilleusement my EW count. NDX has stopped right at 61.8% retracement of the intermediate wave 1.
After market FED's announcement proves that they have good EW analysts as well. In any case, the message is pretty clear: "drop stocks, currencies, commodities and run on treasuries". So, don't fight the FED.

The start of the big drop tomorrow

I was wrong big time on the ending of the correction. Hopefully Mister Market always clarifies its course. My version is below, the most likely outcome is the start of the 3d wave down tomorrow. The ending diagonal seems to be about complete.

Correction is about over?

The correction which has started last Friday has a good chance to finish today. My target for SPX is 1083 and for NDX 1785. EUR/USD continue to be weak, confirming my previous call on euro. The next week should be strong on the downside for all risky assets.

Uncertainty, once again

Friday's session has put under the test my opinion about the structure of current decline. Today should be critical. Will we slow down and roll over under the red line or will we go higher, until the really important resistance of 1104 (for SPX). I'll be watching the leaders (techs), once again.

For the moment, I'm sticking with the previous count. However the target of this 3d wave may be much lower than 1000 for SPX and 2000 for Nasdaq.