Sunday, January 31, 2010

The first minor wave is about over

The stock market had only good news on Friday with Q4 GDP, Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment, all shooting higher than was expected. But the stocks faded, especially in tech sector. And if someone thinks the decline in stocks was driven by an expectation of the future rise in interest rates, he must look at treasuries. Their rates have declined strongly, - not exactly a situation of eminent rise in FED funds.

All this has given one more proof, if one needed, that markets aren't driven by news.

In my opinion we have approached the end of the first minor wave down, as shows  my Elliott Wave count for Nasdaq and SPX:




I'd like to add that I consider the beginning of the first minute wave  January 11, the same day as for Nasdaq. Indeed, even if we can't see it on the charts of cash SPX,  the March's contracts on SPX, have put in the absolute top right before the bell on the  January 11. That top wasn't taken off when 2nd minute wave topped out. Thus, one of the most important rules of the Elliott Wave Principle ("Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1") is preserved.
The obvious conclusion of this count :  the most likely, this Monday (February 1st) we'll start a corrective rally. The possible targets for this move are shown by red horizontal lines.

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