Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Is the game over?

As I've been expecting, the EUR has started a sharp rally the day the payrolls data was published. Numbers was ugly, but market participants have justified buying by the supposed new stimulus package the Obama's administration would be supposed to launch later this year. OK, the rally has happened to be the correctional wave C of the first wave down for the EUR/USD (the wave up for the USD index).
The EUR/USD has broken this night the 1.4215 support provided by the bottom of the 1st wave. The main reason du jour,   now, seems to be the defeat of democrats in the senatorial election in Massachusetts. I think it's pretty clear that electors send a message about administration's costly plans on health reform as well as about others possible stimulus packages. And given that we're in the mid-term election year, if democrats don't want to be hammered they will listen vox populi.

I wouldn't expect EUR/USD to fall off the cliff right now. Indeed other components like canadian or australian dollars still hold rather strong. So a sharp counter trend rally in EUR/USD is very likely before we really start to sink. And, of course, that rally shouldn't exceed the high of the wave C - 1.4580.

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