Friday, January 22, 2010
Don't wake a hungry bear!
I should note that equity market was greatly prepared for the yesterday's sell-off.
From the technical point of view, we have passed the 10 months time frame, which is 62% duration of the previous bear market.
Fundamentally, we're in the 3rd quarter of upbeat earning reports and given the 60%+ rally, the cost reducing efforts of US companies are at present more than fully discounted by the market. What we need to hold, not speaking about the rise, is the growth of sales, that means a real, consumer driven recovery. But the unemployment, which is rising along with cost cutting programs, can't provide any confidence to the consumers.
On the political front, Democrats have lost an important election, and it's not a good thing in the mid-term elections year. That's why in order to gain some popularity, Obama has to do things which will please its voters. And what else will be more popular than an exemplar punishment of the authors of the current crisis. The same who were responsible during decades for pumping money in to the system. All this is deflationary and mister market feels it.
On the short term charts I've got an impression that we need, at least, one more wave down for SPX as well as for NASDAQ. Moreover, it's highly probable that one of these indexes if not both has put its top in.
And, in my opinion, we have a similar situation with currencies. In order to complete the pattern EUR/USD has to plunge one more time, probably toward 1.38.
In any case, we're only at the beginning of the second (3d in Elliott Waves terms) wave of dollar appreciation.
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