Dollar's demise: again, here we are

Put aside that discussions about dollar's demise are the most active exactly around important USD bottoms , here's an excellent reminder about the questions of pricing anything in any currencies.
The most important conclusion :
Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.

No Top is in, yet

So, it seems, it's a bit frustrating to be a bear theese days.
Yelnick and a lot of other elliottists have reiterated recently "last chance to exit" calls, but no chance, we haven't entered the first wave down, yet, - it's only a zig zag correction. Indeed, it would be surprising to start a new leg down a priori without any notable non confirmation signs. Hopefully, during this new leg up, we will be satisfied.
I'm looking, at least, for a relative underperformance of technological and homebuilders stocks comparing to traditional big caps. On the other hand this wave should mark the highest point of price and optimism for inflation related stuff, like EM stocks/bonds and for precious metals sector as well: "Hey guys, we're facing a hyper(re)inflation, no?"

Is volatility turning up?

So, yesterday's start of 4Q has given some clarification about where we go.
First of all, the VIX (implied volatility) has closed above 100 DMA, first time  since the beginning of this rally.

Homebuilders index has closed bellow the previous lows of August and September.

On the other side, Gold and Silver still looks good, showing the potential of new highs in the nearest future.

So, I'm sticking to my current opinion from the previous post about the NASDAQ and most markets in general. We should have some more upside movements, however some non confirmations will show up.

Will Nasdaq push above 200 weeks moving average?

As we can see on the chart below, Nasdaq Composite is sitting near the critical juncture. Will this rally be able to push prices significantly above 200 WMA?
In my current opinion, we will stabilize in the 2200-2270 range and  start a  new leg down somewhere at the beginning of 2010.

Will AXA top out at these levels?

Looking for the top of this bear market rally, it's useful to check up some leaders. One of them being the French insurer  AXA.  The performances of insurers are intimately linked to those of stock markets, since they invest collected money in order to meet their long term liabilities. Therefore, market participants are more willing to buy insurers when they feel the markets to go up rather than down.
In 2007 AXA topped out in the May, some weeks before CAC40. So this time I'm looking at this old lady to give us a sell-signal as well.